Modelling Shifts and Contraction of Seed Zones in Two Mexican Pine Species by Using Molecular Markers

A seed zone or provenance region is an area within which plants can be moved with little risk of maladaptation because the low environmental variation. Delineation zones great importance for commercial plantations and reforestation restoration programs. In this study, we used AFLP markers associated variation locating delimiting two widespread economically important Mexican pine species (Pinus arizonica Engelm. P. durangensis Martínez), both based on recent climate conditions under a predicted scenario 2030 (Representative Concentration Pathway ~4.5 Wm?2). We expected to observe: (i) associations between local climate, soil geographical factors, (ii) meaning latitudinal shift zones, along contraction distributions period 1990–2030 in northward direction. Some outliers were significantly spring winter precipitation, phosphorus concentration soil. According 2030, estimated will change size position. Our modeling could contribute reducing probabilities future reforestations studied.